[Update: Andrew Revkin cites this article at New York Times Dot Earth]

By Teryn Norris
Published by Huffington Post

The biggest news from President Obama’s  Oval Office address is that cap and trade legislation is probably dead for the foreseeable future, and the administration is seeking new ideas.

Instead of using last night’s prime-time opportunity to push cap and trade in the form of the Kerry-Lieberman American Power Act — as many climate advocates saw as their last hope for “comprehensive” climate reform — President Obama pressed the reset button on energy and climate policy, saying he was “happy to look at other ideas and approaches from either party, as long they seriously tackle our addiction to fossil fuels.” He made no mention of setting a price on carbon or establishing an emissions cap and trade system.

As Andrew Revkin observed at New York Times Dot Earth, the president “signaled that he is leaving open a variety of paths on energy and climate policy and no longer hewing tightly to the idea of a cap and trade system for restricting heat-trapping emissions — which he never wavered from during his campaign.” David Roberts of Grist, one of the few remaining hopefuls for cap and trade reform, wrote “Final thought: Obama didn’t drive the carbon cap tonight, so there won’t be a carbon cap in the energy bill this year.”

Several key Democratic Senators have reached a similar conclusion. “I doubt very much whether those 60 votes exist right now,” said Senator Byron Dorgan (D-ND) yesterday on C-SPAN, referring to the 60 votes necessary for cap and trade in the Senate. “The climate bill isn’t going to stop the oil leak,” said Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), asserting that “The first thing you have to do is stop the oil leak.” Echoing these sentiments, Senator Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) stated, “There’s not a great call for it in the Democratic caucus,” and Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) called climate legislation “unrelated” to the Gulf spill.

If cap and trade is dead, then what’s next? The only serious alternative that could attract bipartisan support is a comprehensive national strategy for clean energy competitiveness and innovation — including substantial new federal investment in research, development, demonstration, deployment, and manufacturing — to accelerate America’s transition away from fossil fuels, build a strong and competitive clean energy industry, and rapidly drive down the price of low-carbon power and transportation technologies.  These investments could potentially be included as part of a comprehensive energy package, building upon the proposed American Clean Energy Leadership Act.

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With healthcare reform in the rearview mirror, media speculation has shifted to the Senate’s next order of business and the climate bill, originally set to be unveiled on Earth Day but now indefinitely postponed.  But unfortunately, the introduction of this bill does not guarantee energy and climate legislation will pass, or even be a main focus in the months leading up to the midterm election.  Even one of the bill’s lead authors, Lindsay Graham, admits that immigration reform could overwhelm any chance for the climate bill to go through.

An article in BusinessWeek today went even further documenting the uphill road for this legislation in the toxic political atmosphere of tea-party protests, opposition to government, and skepticism on climate science.  So powerful has the opposition become that supporters have moved away from even using the term “cap-and-trade,” preferring instead to describe it as “carbon pricing.”  With even authors of the legislation and prominent supporters so openly cautious and pessimistic, it is no wonder most Congresspeople view this legislation as political poison to be left untouched until after the midterm election.

And if climate legislation waits until the midterm election, it will not pass.  Not after Republicans gain several seats and the road to 60 votes becomes tougher.  Some, including the Wall Street Journal, have suggested Congress might pass the bill in a “lame-duck” session after the election but before the new Congress takes over.  But the possibility of this risky maneuver is slight and the probability that the resulting bill would amount to anything significant almost completely negligible.

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Jesse Jenkins and Devon Swezey, two of my colleagues at the Breakthrough Institute, have a new piece up called “A Clean Energy Competitiveness Strategy for America” as well as a video of their recent presentation at the World Energy Technologies Summit. They write:

“In the face of aggressive foreign competition in the clean energy industry, the United States urgently needs a comprehensive competitiveness strategy of its own to accelerate the development of a domestic clean energy industry and take advantage of emerging export opportunities. Such a strategy should prioritize large and sustained public investments in clean energy R&D, advanced clean energy manufacturing, innovative deployment, and clean energy education.”

Jenkins and Swezey build upon the report we co-authored last year called “Rising Tigers, Sleeping Giant,” the first comprehensive report to benchmark national clean energy competitiveness in Asia and the USA.  Read their full piece here, and check out the video below.

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