A Renewable Interior

The use of public lands to spur the development of clean energy industries in China has been a contentious issue in recent months. While China’s aggressive growth in renewable energy manufacturing capacity has caused consternation over this lost American opportunity, few would argue that the Federal government should mirror the Chinese state and leverage federally managed lands to attract manufacturers (and the accompanying industrial waste). However, public lands overseen by the Bureau of Land Management can help drive domestic deployment of renewables and will be a critical proving ground for the next generation of energy technology.

Although reports on China’s efforts to nurture cleantech industries can be dismaying, such as the work by AEL’s Daniel Goldfarb on Chinese land hand-outs for manufacturing and contributor Leigh Ewbank additional commentary on the emerging Chinese, American trade dispute, it is important to note that America has not yet lost the renewable energy deployment battle. While growth in the Chinese wind market surpassed the US by almost 4,000 MW in 2009, America leads the world in wind power capacity by almost 10,000 MW (China is currently #2). Similarly, while China is investing heavily in renewable energy generation, Chinese solar power capacity stood at only 150 MW in 2008 compared to an EIA estimate of ~540 MW of in the United States. As is the case for wind, China is moving to aggressively increase solar capacity, targeting 2,000 MW by 2011. Geothermal appears to be a lonely bright-spot: America is far and away the world leader in geothermal generation, with more than 3,000 MW of existing capacity and an additional 4,500 MW in the pipeline. China ranks 17th, with less than 100 MW of geothermal capacity.

While the Race for Megawatts captivates the public, deployment is much more than a matter of national pride. Deployment drives both innovation, reducing technology cost through ‘learning-by-doing’, and economic growth, not only creating jobs through project development but rippling through ecosystem of suppliers, distributors, and manufacturers. A clear path to deployment is also critical if entrepreneurs are expected to invest the time and capital necessary to bring a new technology to market. As can clearly be seen in China (or Germany, Spain, and Japan), strong state support is the single most important factor currently driving the introduction of renewable energy onto the grid.

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A mainstay in the conversation around energy innovation is the clean energy ‘race’ between the United States and China.  While U.S. competitiveness in the clean energy sector is undeniably important, both in terms of short-term job creation and long-term economic outlook, the ‘race’ metaphor provides a rather limited perspective.  A recent article in Foreign Affairs, “Globalizing the Energy Revolution: How to Really Win the Clean-Energy Race,” notes that “an energy agenda built on fears of a clean-energy race could quickly backfire.”  The authors make a strong case for the U.S. to facilitate international cooperation in clean energy technology, particularly with India, China, and Brazil (see our coverage).

The gist of the argument is this:  If national competitiveness is seen as the primary factor motivating policy, governments will embrace green protectionism, erecting barriers and therefore stifling technological innovation coming from cross-border innovation.  Washington will make it more difficult for itself to play a role in mitigating geopolitical concerns like nuclear proliferation, lose the opportunity to gain access to major new clean energy markets for U.S. firms, and retard the pace of decreasing the costs of low-carbon technologies.  If instead the government takes a long term view and prioritizes the creation of an optimal global innovation environment, in addition to encouraging major efforts at home, it will create a winning dynamic for American clean technology firms and strengthen the overall transition to clean energy.

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The Pew Center on Global Climate Change released a brief in April discussing economic and job growth opportunities in clean energy markets. According to the report, global investment in renewable energy more than doubled from 2004-2009. From 2008-2009, China was the only country — out of the U.S, EU, Brazil, and India — whose investment increased. China attracted more investment in clean energy technologies ($34.6 billion) than the United States ($18.6 billion) for the first time in 2009. This first movers advantage could have large implications for future competitiveness:

“History shows that it matters where industries are first established, and countries can use policy to foster domestic “lead markets” for particular industries, giving them the foothold that can lead to significant growth in global market share. In the United States, well-crafted climate and clean energy policy can give nascent clean energy industries such a foothold by creating domestic demand and spurring investment and innovation.”

With China and the EU leading the way in clean energy investment, the U.S has already fallen behind and is losing opportunities to get a “foothold” in industries such as wind energy.  As we previously reported, for two quarters running Ernst and Young’s quarterly “Renewable Energy country attractiveness indices” have listed China as the most attractive destination for clean energy investments over the United States.  As part of the indices, the U.S. ranked third behind the China and the U.K. in both offshore and onshore wind investment attractiveness. Recognizing the rapid expansion of the world wind energy market — “China Wind Power Outlook 2010” asserts that over 100 countries will have installed wind power by the end of 2009 — China has moved to the forefront of the industry and is looking to expand its global market share.  World total installed wind capacity has steadily increased since 2001 and China has lead the way with a 2009 growth rate of 113%, says the 2009 World Wind Energy Report.

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Building the U.S. Cleantech Manufacturing Consensus

The term “industry” is often cast about like a dirty word in discussions on reducing emissions.  Such criticism is not entirely misdirected, as industrial sectors around the world have been almost uniformly slow to begin greening themselves.  Industry also consumes a huge amount of energy: a recent report from Policy Matters Ohio indicates that 33% of Ohio’s energy consumption is industrial, making industry the largest culprit for both consumption and emissions in that state.

However, less often noted are the myriad ways in which achieving national emissions targets hinges upon the maintenance of a robust domestic manufacturing economy.  In truth, those who care about emissions reductions should be highly concerned about the decline of American industry, and should support efforts to boost manufacturing, such as the White House’s National Export Initiative.

The obvious first premise of this interdependency is that we’ll need to manufacture clean energy technologies such as turbines and combined heat and power systems in the very near future.  But the relationship between industry and emissions goes far beyond simply needing somewhere to build things.  It matters greatly that clean energy technologies are manufactured in the U.S. as opposed to elsewhere.  Below, I’ll outline some of the subtle but nonetheless powerful ways in which U.S. manufacturing strength affects both global and domestic emissions targets.

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It can be hard to quantify what is at stake in debates over clean energy policy, but a Pew Charitable Trusts report released this week attempts to do just that.  Based on three potential scenarios of governmental support for clean energy industries – “current policies”, “Copenhagen policies”, and “enhanced clean energy policies” – the report looks at industry growth in international and national contexts. With “enhanced clean energy policies” the report projects a $2.3 trillion investment in clean power over the next 10 years, but if current policies continue that number falls to $1.7 trillion. At stake is a $546 billion loss that could imperil efforts to mitigate climate change and grow economic opportunity around the world.

The report’s findings are nothing new, yet they further emphasize an unavoidable truth: there is a lot to be gained for nations who use policy to support the development of clean energy industries and a lot to be lost for those who don’t. Rapidly increasing demand in Asia will give China, Korea, and India an advantage in being both emerging markets and producers of clean-tech, which means that America will have to be more active in cultivating production than those emerging clean tech economies,

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Noah Rare EarthChina caused a stir in late October by expanding an existing embargo on rare earth metals to include the U.S. and other western nations. Although an infrequently discussed issue when it comes to energy policy, China’s monopoly of the rare earth metal production provides them yet another advantage in the clean energy race. Rare earth metals are vital to the development of clean energy technologies and therefore the future of clean energy in the U.S. As a result, it is imperative that future domestic energy policies include provisions for more secure and reliable acquisition of these metals.

Rare earth metals are actually not particularly “rare”, and consist of 17 minerals, many of which are used in clean energy technologies. Neodymium, a highly magnetic substance, is found in direct drive wind turbines, and metals such as gallium and indium are vital for photovoltaic panels.

China dominates the rare earth market by producing roughly 95 percent of the global supply, a monopoly which could be leveraged to provide Chinese clean-tech companies with considerable advantages. However, global rare earth metal resources are not as sharply skewed in favor of China.  According to the U.S. Geological Survey, China leads the world with 36 percent of global resources, and the U.S. follows with 13 percent. This vast discrepancy between global reserves and production, due mainly to the high fiscal and environmental costs of mining, fueled increasing concern amongst domestic and foreign leaders during the brief embargo.

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Special Series: The Future of Energy Technology

Thin Film Solar Panel

As we collectively stepped back this past week for Thanksgiving, the prospects for real change in the United States’ energy policy – at least in the near term – look rather bleak. If the policymaking machine is at a roadblock, can technology save the day?

The host of Democratic lawmakers and (a few liberal Republicans) who championed the fight against global warming pollution in the past two years will find it hard to promote the same approaches in the post-election environment. And while climate negotiators from around the world will make some headway on international climate talks as they gather in Cancun next week, most experts agree that any progress will be limited.

In this context, it is disturbingly unclear how the United States will manage to meet its climate pledge in the next ten years. And it remains equally uncertain how countries across the world will manage to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius. As it becomes increasingly clear that lawmaking and international negotiations won’t be enough to help us meet these goals, many have begun to look at technology as the answer.

In a forthcoming series of posts for Americans for Energy Leadership, I will explore the role that new technologies can play in helping us face the challenges – and opportunities – of our common energy future.

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China’s ambitious efforts to dominate in clean energy sectors have been widely documented of late, but a new Worldwatch Institute report, “China’s Growth in Clean Energy Matches Ambition,” concludes that these trends have been underestimated if anything.  Since “Rising Tigers, Sleeping Giant” benchmarked China’s clean energy policies and successes in 2009, the disparity between their ambitious policies and America’s lackluster efforts has actually increased:

‘”Governments and industries around the world are now struggling to keep pace with China,’ said Worldwatch President Christopher Flavin. ‘China is succeeding precisely where the United States is failing – in implementing the ambitious policies and making the sustained investment that is needed to spur growth in clean energy. If China keeps on its current pace, it will be the undisputed global leader in clean energy within the next two years.’”

A few of the report’s most important findings are below:

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How Public Land Can Jumpstart Clean Energy

Recent trade disagreements and Interior Department activities have brought to bear a crucial difference between China and America’s policy approaches to their respective clean energy industries; namely, that when America talks about providing capital, it is really only dealing with half the picture. While American policy makers have been obsessively focused on access to financing, China has approached the idea of capital with a broader definition, focusing both on access to funding as well as land.

The importance of policy that makes prime land accessible to this emerging industry is only now becoming clear. Tuesday’s announcement, of the Interior Department’s approval of the 1000 megawatt Blythe Solar Power Project on public land in California, alongside the groundbreaking of a $2 billion solar development on public land in Ivanpah, California, are steps in the right direction but still falls short of the comprehensive approach to capital that will be necessary to compete with China in the future.

The recent complaint by the United Steel Workers Union to America’s WTO representative about the Chinese government’s unfair trade practices – including highly favorable land grant agreements with renewable companies – has brought China’s aggressive industrial and trade policies into the spotlight. This coupled with the recent efforts of the Department of the Interior: Bureau of Land Management to make public land available for renewable power facilities, make clear that money isn’t the only commodity the government must provide to foster the renewable energy sector. Renewable energy sources are in many cases not just more expensive then their traditional counterparts, but larger and more constrained during deployment by certain geographic necessities. Access to cheap and prime land then becomes a necessity for fostering renewable energy production and the markets for these products here in the U.S.

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A New Era of “Post-Partisan Power”?

Written by Daniel Goldfarb and Clifton YinPost-Partisan Power Thumbnail-thumb-200x257

Post-Partisan Power,” a report released today by the unlikely triumvirate of the Breakthrough Institute, American Enterprise Institute, and Brookings Institution, provides the most compelling argument to date for a bipartisan energy agenda.  National hyper partisanship has made it difficult to bring the right and left together on any issue.  But the death of cap and trade this summer provides a renewed opportunity for a united American energy agenda. The report’s press release lays out a list of policy goals that both sides of the aisle can get behind:

“The new report calls for increasing federal innovation investment from roughly $4 today to $25 billion annually, and using military procurement, new, disciplined deployment incentives, and public-private hubs to achieve both incremental improvements and breakthroughs in clean energy technologies.”

Most Americans can agree on the appeal of innovating clean energy technologies, creating new jobs in America, staving off environmental catastrophe, and freeing our nation from dependence on foreign sources of energy.  Where cap and trade went wrong was insisting that these goals could only be accomplished by raising the price of carbon emitting energy sources.  But not only was cap and trade not the only means of accomplishing these goals, according to the New York Times’s assessment of “Post-Partisan Power”, it may not have even been the most effective:

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