Arctic Oil and Gas: The Emerging Question

“What would happen if a Deepwater Horizon-type oil spill were to happen in the Arctic?” is a question Arctic coastal nations have been asking themselves for almost a year now.  It is important to stress that this is not a high-flown hypothetical.

The USGS released a report in 2008 saying that there could be up to 400 billion barrels of oil equivalent reserves in the Arctic, comprising 6.7% of the world’s proven oil reserves and 26% of natural gas reserves, recoverable with current technology. Much of the world is waiting to see exactly how these resources will be exploited and who, if anyone, will ultimately reap the riches.

The Arctic hydrocarbon question has resulted in a flurry of interest in all things Arctic by many northern countries. With oil and gas in the equation, nearly every aspect of Arctic management becomes a geopolitical issue to any country with a stake in energy security.

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Gas-Pipeline

It was Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau who once announced, “Canada is a country whose main exports are hockey players and cold fronts. Our main imports are baseball players and acid rain.”  Yet the head of state’s wry humor belies the significance of the U.S-Canadian relationship, and how this relationship is destined to shape – and to be shaped – by the posture that the United States takes towards the explosion of unconventional oil production occurring because of the Canadian oil sands.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that the prospect of a nearly 2,000 mile long pipeline between Canada and the United States, the TransCanada Corporation’s “Keystone XL” project, should be welcomed as a harbinger of closer ties and safer energy supplies.  Under the surface, however, lies a complex geopolitical and commercial logic that suggests it is Canadian producers – not American consumers – who stand to gain most from the project.

Our neighbor to the north will hardly ever receive the bursts of attention or scrutiny that Saudi Arabia or China garner in present times, but it is this bromidic consistency on Canada’s part which places it squarely, albeit quietly, as a foundation of US energy policy.  The US has been Canada’s largest market reaching back to the beginning of the Cold War, and the two are currently the world’s largest trading partners.  Canada has the world’s second largest oil reserves – after Saudi Arabia – and is the United States’ number one source of oil imports, almost doubling the volume of its closest competitor – Mexico.  In 2008, Canada provided 90% of US natural gas imports, and also boasts one of the world’s largest reserves of high-quality uranium.  Were the country anything other than a stable Western democracy sharing a similar colonial heritage with the United States, our deep interdependence with such an energy superpower might prove alarming.  Instead, it is often cited as a source of strength.

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Speculation over when gasoline will reach $5 per gallon seems to be a major theme of the new year.  Although the group pushing this story is primarily interested in leveraging America’s emotional attachment to cheap gasoline to push an offshore drilling agenda, a wiser response to the prospect of rising oil costs might be a serious conversation on fuel economy.  The American auto industry faces a number of hurdles in its pursuit to achieve new federal fuel standards, but, smart policy could aid this key industry while acting as a boon for America’s economy and efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

It is fitting that the first week of 2011 ushered in a new series of federal fuel standards, meaning passenger cars sold this year must achieve at least 30.2 miles per gallon.  This alone is nothing big: the previous standard for passenger cars was 27.5 MPG, it had been on the books since 1985, and the Obama administration’s 2011 standards are even slightly less ambitious than those the Bush administration had been toying around with in 2008.  Far more significant is that the 2011 standards kick-start an annual progression that will bring us to passenger car averages of 39.5 MPH by 2016.  With light trucks required to improve their fuel economy from 24.1 MPG this year to 29.8 by 2016, industry-wide averages five years from now should exceed 35.5 MPG.  The Union of Concerned Scientists calculates that these standards will “reduce U.S. oil consumption by 1.2 million barrels per day by 2020, more petroleum than the United States presently imports from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait combined,” and in terms of carbon emissions will represent “the equivalent of taking nearly 31 million of today’s cars and light trucks off the road” over the next ten years.

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The electric car is back.  With an assist from government, Nissan delivered the first models of its new electric vehicle (EV) to customers earlier this month, and thanks to a $100 million Federal program hundreds more will be on the road soon.  Nissan is the first manufacturer out of the gate, but others are expected to offer EVs for sale in the next couple of years.  While governments at the Federal, state, and local levels have been heavily involved in the roll-out of EVs, the new Congress will decide whether EVs will continue to receive government support.

The primary rationale for continued government support is that EVs can help wean the US off of its addiction to oil.  Each day, the US burns 380 million gallons of gasoline, and more than 60 percent of oil consumed in the US is imported. But with 255 million oil guzzling registered vehicles in the US today, even the most optimistic forecasts predict that it will take decades before EVs meaningfully contribute to a reduction in oil consumption.

EVs have also been touted as a means for creating jobs and stimulating the struggling car industry.  To that end, the February 2009 Recovery Act included $2 billion in grants for battery and component manufacturers, and the DOE’s Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing loan program, passed by Congress during the Bush Administration, has lent $2.4 billion to support the development of EV factories.  Perhaps no state has leveraged Federal money as successfully as Michigan, which is looking to revitalize its auto industry. By offering packages of tax credits in combination with Federal incentives, the state has attracted eighteen companies developing advanced batteries, an effort that the Governor predicts will generate 63,000 jobs. (more…)

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BP’s Necessity, America’s Opportunity

gas liens

In the world of technology innovation, 86 days is the blink of an eye.  Most companies are looking months or years down the road when they invest in research and development.  But when barrels of oil began pouring into the Gulf from BP’s Deepwater Horizon, the equation changed.  Suddenly, research and development wasn’t optional, it was essential.

BP is the perfect model of what the United States should not do. The American citizen has paid the price for fossil fuel dependence for decades now and we can’t wait for another disaster to strike the US.  Eighty-six days is almost nothing when you talk about technology innovation, but when you are trying to plug an oil spill, rescue workers from a collapsed coal mine, or end an OPEC embargo, 86 days is an eternity.  We need to jump-start the clean energy R&D process now.  We need to invest like we mean it.

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